Over recent years, drones have swiftly become a vital component of modern warfare. Various conflicts globally, spanning from Ukraine to Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh, Sudan, and beyond, have showcased the critical role autonomous drones play in contemporary combat scenarios.
Despite the goal of producing 180,000 drones annually by 2028, Taiwan is encountering obstacles in establishing this industry from scratch. In the prior year, the nation managed to manufacture fewer than 10,000 drones.
While debates persist on the form potential Chinese military aggression may take, military analysts in Taiwan are wary of the possibility of a comprehensive coordinated arms attack, commencing with air and sea operations leading up to a large-scale land invasion.
Taiwan has long lived under the looming shadow of a potential Chinese incursion, with recent times escalating this threat. Beijing has articulated plans to complete the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army by 2027, raising the prospect of a potential invasion prior to Premier Xi Jinping’s term ending in 2029.
Taipei has taken proactive measures in this realm. In 2022, the government launched the Drone National Team initiative to bring together governmental and industrial resources in fostering growth in this emerging field. Taking cues from Ukraine, which heavily relies on small, adaptable, cost-effective UAVs integrated closely with ground troops for defense, Taiwan aims to emulate their strategy. Ukraine boasts a robust domestic drone industry, with plans to acquire 4.5 million small drones this year, in addition to their long-range unmanned missile program, autonomous ground vehicles, and unmanned naval drones.
In a conversation with WIRED, Fang and other DSET researchers delved into the specifics of their report at their Taipei office last May.
One entity acutely aware of this reality is Taiwan. With apprehensions about a potential Chinese invasion looming, Taiwan possesses the expertise, urgency, and resources to cultivate a robust and advanced drone program.
In a recent comprehensive report by Fang and her team, findings indicate that Taiwan’s drone sector is advancing at a sluggish pace. The study revealed that approximately 8,000 to 10,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were manufactured in the past year, facing challenges such as high production costs, limited local sourcing, and minimal foreign government contracts.
- Cathy Fang, a policy analyst at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET), opines that Taiwan possesses the capacity to create world-class drones. However, the lingering question remains
- why hasn’t this materialized yet?
Faced with this sense of urgency, Taiwan must innovate and devise swift solutions for its defense strategies. Deliberations in 2023 proposed creating a “hellscape” in the Taiwan Strait, deploying numerous unmanned aerial and naval vehicles to deter potential Chinese threats and provide time for allied assistance.
